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Within the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.