Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.