Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”